Super Tuesday Analysis

As entertaining as the political landscape can be at times, I have for the most part ignored the Presidential campaign on this blog until now. While I don’t plan on a major editorial shift toward political content, some of the trends that presented themselves last night are concerning enough that I believe this post is merited. I apologize in advance for using this platform as a bully-pulpit, but there are simply too many possible negative repercussions if voters don’t wake up and see things for what they really are. In today’s post, I’ll share a few concerns that I encourage everyone to pay attention to as they begin to solidify their opinions surrounding the Presidential candidates…

As most of you already know my political philosophy is best represented by that of the Grand Old Party. That being said, I have clients that are republicans, democrats, independents, and even a political agnostic or two. While I try not to put my brain in neutral and blindly follow the party line, I find that in most cases the conservative agenda is most closely aligned with my personal views. There are certain areas of conflict that I struggle with where the republican platform runs contrary to my personal value system. As an example I am pro-life but against the death penalty. While this position seems very philosophically consistent to me, it nonetheless puts me in conflict with my party of choice, but I digress on to the Super Tuesday Analysis.

As I watched the results of Super Tuesday unfold last night I became very unsettled as two of my biggest fears quickly transitioned into very real threats; 1.) That the conservative portion of the Republican Party is having difficulty getting behind John McCain, and; 2.) The emergence of Barack Obama as the likely nominee of the Democratic Party. It is my opinion that these two points comprise the worst of all possible scenarios.

Let’s begin with my analysis of the current status quo in the Republican Party…Super Tuesday gave John McCain a decisive lead over both Romney and Huckabee, with McCain amassing more than twice the number of delegates than either of the other two candidates. Furthermore, with Romney and Huckabee splitting the party’s conservative vote moving forward, baring a major debacle, there is simply no way for either of them to overtake McCain. The party needs to recognize McCain as the clear front-runner and rally behind him as quickly as possible to build momentum and energize what is now a very fractured Republican Party.

If you think about what I’ve described above you’ll see that the current goings-on in the Republican Party are very reminiscent of 1976. Check your history and you’ll note that it was the Republican Party’s less than enthusiastic support of Gerald Ford as the nominee that resulted in a poor GOP voter turn-out which ultimately put Jimmy Carter in the oval office. It was a fractured and apathetic Republican Party in 1976 that allowed Jimmy Carter to lose Afghanistan and Iran as allies and permitted radical Islamic extremists to move from a fringe element to the mainstream in the Mid East. It was also during this time that we saw 19% interest rates, rampant inflation, job losses, and labor strikes, oil embargoes, and gas rationing. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want 2008 to mirror 1976 in any way, shape, or form.

I am fearful that many of the conservative Republican pundits, influencers, and mouthpieces are majoring in the minors. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Michelle Malkin, Ann Coulter, James Dobson, and many of their peers are so vehemently opposed to McCain for his moderate stance that they have lost sight of the real issue…Romney and Huckabee can’t win the nomination. They can either continue to pick at some of McCain’s moderate positions (which by the way are the same positions that will bring back the Regan Democrats, and appeal to young voters and independents alike) and undermine the strength of the Republican Party, or they can let the rhetoric go and serve as catalysts to reunite the Republican Party by supporting McCain. Do I like all of McCain’s positions? No, but I clearly prefer McCain to either of the Democratic candidates.

Let’s now turn our attention to the Democratic Party…If you paid attention to Barack Obama’s positioning prior to Super Tuesday he was doing everything possible to manage expectations downward. Just days before Super Tuesday Clinton had double-digit leads in virtually every poll. While Obama was showing some momentum even he didn’t believe it was enough to overcome Hillary’s dominant position in the polls. At the same time, most of the pundits thought last night would be the evening that Hillary Clinton locked-up the nomination. What we see this morning is that as the final tally is rolling in, Hillary Clinton not only won’t have locked-up the nomination, but Obama might actually be within 100 delegates of Hillary going into the next set of primaries. Clinton’s hopes will ride on Texas and Ohio while Obama will show very well in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Maryland. As the Democratic race hangs in the balance, so does our countries future.

The circumstances described above constitute the worst possible scenario for Republicans. Every poll to date shows McCain clearly defeating Clinton in the general election. These same polls also show McCain losing handily to Obama in a general election. The best thing for the Republican Party would be for Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee. She will unilaterally serve to galvanize the Republican Party and turn-out, Republican voters, in droves. It has been my contention all along that she is simply not electable in a general election. The same may not be true of Barack Obama. Senator Obama if nominated, would in my opinion be very competitive in the general election. No Republican candidate matches-up well against Obama and Obama has that x-factor that we haven’t seen in a presidential candidate since JFK. The potential saving grace for Republicans is that Obama is very prone to major tactical errors. He and his wife can tend to speak before they think and as the media places more scrutiny on Obama’s positions and with a few well-timed mistakes on Obama’s part some of his lusters may start to fade. One can only hope…

Republicans need to immediately coalesce behind John McCain and pray that Hillary wins the Democratic nomination. If these two things don’t happen I’m afraid we are in for a very rocky road ahead…

 

Image credit: NBC